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Overview

The platform uses a constant product market maker (CPMM) to dynamically adjust vote entry fees based on market consensus. This creates fair, efficient pricing that rewards early voters and prevents whale manipulation.

Formal Classification

Democratic Parimutuel Prediction Market with Proportional Payouts
  • Pricing: Constant Product AMM
  • Outcome: Democratic (1 wallet = 1 vote)
  • Payouts: Plutocratic (proportional to stake)

Core Formula

The platform uses a constant product formula to calculate entry fees dynamically based on current market consensus. Entry fees adjust in real-time as votes are cast, creating a self-balancing market.

Slippage Protection

Dynamic pricing creates race conditions between when a user requests a price quote and when their payment settles. Without protection, attackers could manipulate prices or users could overpay unexpectedly.

Protection Mechanisms

The platform uses a three-layer defense:
What: Quotes expire after 60 secondsWhy: Prevents stale quotes from settling hours later during rapid market movementEffect: Limits the window for sandwich attacks and forces refresh during volatility
What: Users specify maximum acceptable price movement (default 5%)Why: Front-running attacks are limited to the slippage toleranceEffect: Users control acceptable price movement; negative slippage (favorable price) always accepted
What: Pre-calculated upper price bound based on quoted price + slippageWhy: Hard cap prevents unexpected overpaymentEffect: Double-checks facilitator enforcement and protects users from extreme price spikes

Attack Prevention

This three-layer approach prevents common manipulation attacks:
  • Front-Running: Limited to slippage tolerance (e.g., 5% max price increase)
  • Stale Quotes: Automatically rejected after 60 seconds
  • Sandwich Attacks: Narrow time window and slippage caps make attacks unprofitable
Users can customize slippage tolerance via query parameter. Higher tolerance accepts more price movement; lower tolerance provides stricter protection but may require more retries.

Proportional Payouts

Winners share the total pot proportionally based on their stake.

What’s in the Pot?

The total payout pot consists of two sources:
  1. Poll Pool (Bonus): Initial USDC contributed from the treasury when the poll is created. This is a fixed bonus amount that incentivizes participation.
  2. Vote Entry Fees: All USDC paid by voters (both winners and losers) as entry fees to cast their votes. These fees accumulate throughout the voting period.
Total Pot = Poll Pool + All Vote Entry Fees This means even if you vote on the winning side, you’re competing for a share of the combined pool that includes both the initial bonus and everyone’s entry fees.

How Payouts Work

Each winner receives a proportional share based on how much they paid relative to all winning votes: Your Payout = (Your Entry Fee / Total Winning Entry Fees) × Total Pot

Whale Resistance

The platform prevents wealthy actors from dominating outcomes through two key mechanisms: 1. Democratic Voting (1 Wallet = 1 Vote) Outcomes are determined by vote count, not by money spent. To control the outcome, you need 51% of the votes - not 51% of the capital. 2. Fixed Entry Fees Unlike traditional prediction markets where you can buy unlimited shares, each vote requires paying the current entry fee - no more, no less. You cannot buy multiple votes from a single wallet.

Why Whales Can’t Win

Requirement: Need 51% of votes (not 51% of money)Cost: 51 wallets × current entry feeProblem: Entry fee increases with each vote, making bulk buying exponentially expensive
Requirement: Create 51 wallets, pay 51× entry feesResult: Expensive, inefficient, and must share winnings 51 waysDisincentive: ROI is the same for all winners - no advantage to Sybil attack

Fairness Analysis

DimensionVerdictReasoning
Economic✅ FAIRNo arbitrage, proportional rewards, info revelation
Democratic✅ FAIR1 wallet = 1 vote, majority wins, whale-resistant
Game-Theoretic✅ FAIRTruth-telling incentivized, early bets rewarded
Distributional⚠️ MIXEDEarly voters advantaged (by design)
Early voters get better prices, but all winners receive the same ROI. This incentivizes participation while maintaining fairness.

Next Steps

x402 Payment

Understand the gasless voting flow